Bayesian Analysis of 30 Prominent UAP Cases (1947–2024) Using the JOR PyMC Framework

I applied the JOR Framework in PyMC to 30 well-known UAP cases spanning from 1947 to 2024. This approach combines witness credibility, environmental context, sensor/physical evidence, and flight behavior to generate a posterior probability for each case, along with a 95% credible interval (CI) - essentially showing both the strength of evidence for anomalous activity and how much uncertainty remains. Tier 1 / High Posterior (0.45+): - Tehran UFO (1976): 0.504 [0.411–0.589] - Yemen MQ-9 Orb (2...