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THE WEIGH-IN: We Published The Verdict on Tuesday. A Paper From the Day Before Had Already Killed the Comet Model.

Three physicists put 3I on a scale. The surface area needed to produce the water is bigger than the object itself.

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Key Claims

10
Interpretation5Factual5
  • The Sentinel states that the surface of 3I/ATLAS is not producing the water.interpretation
    The surface is not producing the water.
  • The Sentinel claims that the ghost coma is the operating system of 3I/ATLAS.interpretation
    The ghost coma is the operating system.
  • The Sentinel asserts that 3I/ATLAS is a machine.interpretation
    We said this is a machine.
  • Thoss, Loeb, and Burkert claim that the mass of 3I/ATLAS is roughly a billion metric tons.factual
    The answer is roughly a billion metric tons.
  • The paper by Thoss, Loeb, and Burkert states that the high water model for 3I/ATLAS is dead because it requires a surface bigger than the object itself.factual
    The high water model is dead. It needs a surface bigger than 3 km across just to produce the gas.
  • The Sentinel claims that the CO2-only model for 3I/ATLAS works clean with no tension.interpretation
    The CO2-only model works clean. No tension.
  • The Sentinel states that water is pouring off 3I/ATLAS and every major telescope has confirmed it.factual
    Water is pouring off this object. Every major telescope has confirmed it.
  • The Sentinel claims that the object 3I/ATLAS is 0.84 km across if CO2 alone drives the thrust.factual
    If CO2 alone drives the thrust, the object is 0.84 km across.
  • The Sentinel states that the sideways push on 3I/ATLAS is as strong as the forward push and flipped direction when the object swung around the Sun.factual
    The sideways push on 3I is as strong as the forward push. And the sideways push flipped direction when the object swung around the Sun.
  • The Sentinel claims that the interstellar object population does not look like natural debris.interpretation
    The interstellar object population does not look like natural debris.

Evidence

8
Thoss, Loeb & Burkert (2026) paperThoss, Loeb & Burkert (2026)
paper
8,086 MPC astrometric observationsMinor Planet Center
data
Shanghai water source dataShanghai Observatory
data
Korea gas appearance dataKorean Observatory
data
Harvard light source dataHarvard Observatory
data
Princeton outer cloud dataPrinceton Observatory
data
Keck and Tianwen-1 ice grain theory dataKeck Observatory and Tianwen-1
data
Hubble, VLT, Gemini, and deep-space probes dataHubble, VLT, Gemini, and deep-space probes
data

Source Documents

1
The VerdictThe SentinelBriefingunclassified

Event timeline

3
March 19, 2026

Publication of The Verdict

The Sentinel published The Verdict.

since July 2025

Observations of 3I/ATLAS

Major telescopes have been observing 3I/ATLAS.

March 16

Publication of Thoss, Loeb & Burkert paper

Thoss, Loeb, and Burkert published their paper.