Nine Months of Disclosure – What 52,610 UFO/UAP Posts Show

From February 20 to November 2, 2026, Probed tracked 52,610 UFO/UAP posts from hundreds of sources across X, Reddit, YouTube and news outlets. This is the full breakdown behind the Nine Months of Disclosure series: who the conversation centered on, how each UFO file release landed, where news breaks first and which promises came true.

Key findings

• The files came out. The Department of War published seven PURSUE releases, 475 files in all, starting on May 8. The first release brought the busiest week of the period: 1,790 posts.
• Each release drew less attention than the one before. Release 01 drew 557 posts in its first week. Release 07 drew 171.
• Congress faded and insiders took the mic. Members of Congress were named in 15.9% of posts in April and 4.3% in October. Insiders and whistleblowers rose to 18.6%.
• Promises tied to the file releases mostly came true. The biggest promised moments haven't happened yet: no presidential disclosure speech, no images from the Moon, no announcement that the phenomenon is real.
• Talk of disclosure "coming soon" is down about 70% since April.
• Stories break on X first in 59% of cases. Reddit follows a median 1.6 hours later and YouTube about 17 hours later.
• Varginha is the surprise among historic cases, third behind Roswell and Nimitz.

The conversation peaked in May and June

Weekly volume peaked in the week of the first release (1,790 posts, week of May 4). A second peak came in the week of June 8 (1,588 posts), which brought David Grusch's press conference at the Capitol, the premiere of Disclosure Day and Release 03. Since September the weekly count has settled near 800 posts, still above March's level of about 700.

Congress faded. Insiders took its place.

In April, as Rep. Anna Paulina Luna pressed the Pentagon for 46 overdue UAP videos, members of Congress were named in 15.9% of UFO/UAP posts. By October that share had fallen to 4.3%, the lowest month of the period.

Insiders and whistleblowers went the other way. A joint appeal to the President from David Grusch, Matthew Brown, Dylan Borland and Jeff Nuccetelli lifted them to 17.8% of posts in August. In October, Jay Stratton's memoir Out of the Shadows and Grusch's appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast took them to 18.6%. The White House and cabinet held fairly steady at 5–8% of posts, except in June.

The format of the conversation changed with its cast. Posts about books, films, documentaries, podcasts and interviews rose from about 10% of X posts in the spring to 18% in October.

Biggest changes in each person's share of posts, March–April compared with September–October:

• Rising: Jay Stratton +4.5 points, David Grusch +3.3, Dylan Borland +1.2
• Falling: Anna Paulina Luna −2.9, Tim Burchett −2.7, Bob Lazar −2.7, Neil McCasland −2.5, Eric Burlison −2.4

Each UFO file release drew less attention than the last

Release 01 (May 8, 158 files) drew 557 release-related posts from 62 sources in its first week. Release 07 (October 23, 28 files) drew 171 from 36. Rep. Eric Burlison had anticipated a release every two weeks. Only Release 02 kept that pace, and the last two gaps were 42 and 35 days.

Attention also fades quickly after each drop. The day after a release brought only 30–48% as many posts as release day. All seven releases landed on a Friday.

Probed's UFO Files page has every file from all seven releases.

Promises about the files came true. The biggest ones haven't yet.

These are the dated predictions that reached at least four of the sources Probed tracks and can be traced to the speaker or a named report, checked against what those sources reported afterwards. Promises about the file-release process were kept, though sometimes late or only once. Promises of a single defining moment haven't come true so far.

• Kept. President Trump, April 29: classified UFO files will be released "soon". Release 01 came nine days later, on May 8.
• Kept. FBI Director Kash Patel, May 6: FBI UFO documents will be released soon. Release 01 included FBI records.
• Late. Rep. Luna, April 10: 46 UAP videos will be released by the April 14 deadline. The deadline passed, and Release 01 came 24 days late.
• Partly. Rep. Burlison, May 10: releases every two weeks, with "the good stuff" coming. Release 02 came 14 days later; the gaps after that were 21, 28, 28, 42 and 35 days.
• Partly. Rep. Luna, July 3: an announcement is coming that will assure people "the phenomena is real". Luna shared Release 04 on July 10; no confirmation statement followed.
• Not seen. Lue Elizondo, July 7: images of monolithic structures on the Moon will be released soon. No such images were reported through November 2.
• Not seen. Liberation Times, August 4–5: a disclosure speech has been prepared for President Trump, with Reddit posts saying it was less than 48 hours away. No speech followed. The White House issued a PURSUE memorandum on July 31, the Department of War issued a legal waiver for insiders on September 14, and on October 16 Trump said "I'm looking" when asked about disclosure.
• Still open. Dan Farah, as VETTED reported it on July 20: disclosure guaranteed by the end of the year.
• Still open. Avi Loeb, in Politico on September 26: his White House science council gives the government until year-end to hand over meaningful data.

Expectation language is cooling too. Posts with "imminent", "soon… disclosure", "two weeks" or "buckle up" phrasing fell from 1.8% of posts in April to 0.5% in October, and every month since June has been below every month of the spring.

Where UFO news breaks first

Across the 369 stories that reached at least five tracked sources, the first original post came from X in 219 (59%), Reddit in 66 (18%), a news outlet in 50 (14%) and YouTube in 32 (9%).

News outlets are usually either the origin of a story or well behind it: about a fifth of their first posts came 24 hours or more after the story broke. The fastest relays on X were UAP James, a median 20 minutes behind the first post, then Interstellar (1.6 hours) and Christopher Sharp (1.7 hours). Ask a Pol's site posted first in 16 of the 19 stories it covered.

Each platform also has its own beat. X carries the most talk about Congress and legislation. Reddit carries the most about aliens and contact, sightings and skepticism. On YouTube, 42% of posts are about books, films, podcasts or interviews.

Seven camps, and David Grusch connects them

Grouping people by who is named together in the same posts splits the conversation into seven camps. David Grusch has ties to 38 of the 48 key people, more than anyone else, and does the most to connect the camps, followed by Donald Trump, Lue Elizondo and Jesse Michels. The skeptics don't form a camp of their own: Sean Kirkpatrick, Michael Shermer and Mick West sit with the program insiders and scientists they argue with.

• Washington: Trump, Burlison, Luna, Burchett, Rounds, Schumer, Rubio, Hegseth, Stephen Miller, and the accounts that cover them most: Christopher Sharp, Matt Laslo, Matt Ford and UAP James.
• The Grusch–Rogan circuit: Grusch, Joe Rogan, Neil McCasland, Tom DeLonge, Eric Weinstein, Dr. Phil, JD Vance, Jake Barber, Ryan Graves, Elon Musk.
• Programs and science: Jay Stratton, Avi Loeb, Eric Davis, Jacques Vallée, Garry Nolan, Tim Gallaudet, Hal Puthoff, James Lacatski, Diana Pasulka, and the skeptics Kirkpatrick, Shermer and West.
• Coulthart and Elizondo: Ross Coulthart, Lue Elizondo, Christopher Mellon, Chris Bledsoe, Steven Greer, Richard Dolan, James Clapper, Danny Sheehan.
• Weaponized and Skinwalker: Jeremy Corbell, George Knapp, Bob Lazar, Robert Bigelow, Brandon Fugal, Chris Ramsay.
• The new whistleblowers: Matthew Brown, Dylan Borland, Jeff Nuccetelli, James Fox, Leslie Kean, and Aldo Rebelo on Varginha.
• Hollywood and history: Steven Spielberg, Jesse Michels, Beatriz Villarroel, Brent Friedman, John Herrington, Bryce Zabel, Dennis Åsberg.

Historic cases: Varginha is the surprise

Roswell leads the historic cases with 436 posts, and the 2004 USS Nimitz encounter is second with 215. Varginha, Brazil (1996) is third with 198 posts from 40 sources, and it is current news. In January, James Fox brought Varginha witnesses to members of Congress. In June, Brazil's former defense minister Aldo Rebelo told Jesse Michels on camera that it happened. In July, Rep. Burlison asked the CIA and FBI to preserve their Varginha records.

After the top three come Westall, Australia (55 posts), the 1952 Washington, D.C. flap (54), Ellsworth AFB (49), the Ariel School in Zimbabwe (43), and Rendlesham Forest and the Phoenix Lights (39 each). Probed's reconstructions of Nimitz, Ellsworth, Rendlesham and the Phoenix Lights let you step through each encounter.

What moved disclosure, and what didn't

Over nine months, disclosure moved through process more than revelation. Seven releases put 475 files on the record, and the promises tied to that process were mostly kept, if not always on schedule. The center of the conversation shifted from congressional pressure to insiders telling their stories in books, podcasts and interviews. The single defining moments people were promised, a speech, images from the Moon and an official confirmation, haven't happened yet, and talk of disclosure arriving "soon" has cooled.

How this was measured

• Data. A read-only copy of Probed's production data, taken on November 3, 2026 at 18:39 UTC: 52,610 posts published from February 20 to November 2. Probed tracks 141 UFO/UAP feeds (X accounts, YouTube channels, news outlets and subreddits). Counting the people posting in those subreddits, the posts come from hundreds of sources. NewsNation's general-news YouTube channel is excluded.
• On-topic posts. Volume and release counts use a fixed UFO/UAP keyword list (34,821 posts match), applied the same way to every month, because Probed's relevance filter became stricter on September 14.
• People. Counts use Probed's entity tags. A tracked account tagging itself doesn't count as a mention. Groups are assigned by hand from the 150 most-mentioned people. Congress means the 26 sitting members tagged in the period; former members such as Matt Gaetz and Tulsi Gabbard are left out.
• Stories and speed. Stories are Probed signals that reached at least five tracked sources. "First" means the earliest original post (not a repost) that passed Probed's relevance filter, among tracked sources only, so an untracked account may have been earlier. Times are each platform's own publish time, not when Probed collected the post.
• Themes and promises. Theme shares use keyword lists, so read them as directions rather than exact sizes. Promise outcomes were checked against later posts. "Not seen" means tracked sources didn't report it, not that it can't still happen. Two widely shared predictions are left out because they reached tracked sources only through secondhand summaries: Matthew Brown's court action "soon" (March) and Rep. Luna's "about 30 days" (May).
• Release attention. Release-related posts mention the files, PURSUE, a tranche or a declassified batch, counted from release day through day 6.
• Historic cases. The 1933 Magenta crash is left out because its tag also picks up unrelated posts about captured wartime technology.