CIA-UAP-015: Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of…
This released document records that reports of unidentified aerial objects have been received by the U.S. Air Force since mid-1947. The file preserves the source account or analysis but does not independently establish interpretations beyond the cited record. This document is useful as an officially released artifact because it preserves the file's provenance and lets its claims be compared with related Release 03 records.
- File
- Document · Release 03
- Extent
- 312 pages
- Agency
- CIA
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Probed Assessment
This released document records that reports of unidentified aerial objects have been received by the U.S. Air Force since mid-1947. The file preserves the source account or analysis but does not independently establish interpretations beyond the cited record.
Key takeaways
- The source states that reports of unidentified aerial objects have been received by the U.S. Air Force since mid-1947.
- The source states that there was no evidence that unexplained reports of unidentified objects constituted a threat to the security of the U.S.
- The source states that the Air Force determined that all reports of unidentified aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated.
Why it matters
This document is useful as an officially released artifact because it preserves the file's provenance and lets its claims be compared with related Release 03 records.
Corroboration
The release metadata and stored source material corroborate the file's provenance. Reported sightings, interpretations, and allegations remain attributed to the source unless independently supported by the cited evidence.
Open questions
- • What additional contemporaneous records or independent evidence could test the source account?
Probed separates this editorial assessment from the source claims below. It summarizes what the released artifact supports; it is not independent verification.
Official Description from War.gov
This is the USAF Project Blue Book with a CIA cover sheet stating the document is "Official Record Copy." With the exception of the handwritten note on the first page, the content of this document has been available on CIA's public website.
Preserved verbatim as source metadata. This wording is separate from Probed’s file-specific description and assessment.
File Context
Related entities
Tracker findings
Project Blue Book records say UFO reports began in mid-1947
The record states: Reports of unidentified aerial objects have been received by the U.S. Air Force since mid-1947.
Release provenance
- Release
- Release 03
- Official ID
- release-03-file-024-cia-uap-015-project-blue-book-special-report-no-14-analysis-of-reports-of-unidentified-aerial-ob
- Cleared
- Jun 12, 2026
Referenced Timeline
Start of U.S. Air Force receiving reports of unidentified aerial objects
LinkedU.S. Air ForceInformation cut-off date for the study
Start of the special study resulting in the report
Establishment of revised program by AF Reg. 200-2
Period accounting for 131 unidentified aerial object reports received
Publication of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14
LinkedProject Blue Book
Source Claims
Claims are attributed to the released source and remain distinct from Probed’s assessment and tracker findings.
Reports of unidentified aerial objects have been received by the U.S. Air Force since mid-1947.
Reports of unidentified aerial objects (popularly termed "flying saucers" or "flying discs") have been received by the U.S. Air Force since mid-1947.
There was no evidence that unexplained reports of unidentified objects constituted a threat to the security of the U.S.
Although there was no evidence that the unexplained reports of unidentified objects constituted a threat to the security of the U.S.
The Air Force determined that all reports of unidentified aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated.
The Air Force determined that all reports of unidentified aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated.
The probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represented observations of technological developments not known to this country was very small.
This led to the conclusion that this probability was very small.
The study started in 1953 and the information cut-off date was established as of the end of 1952.
The special study which resulted in this report (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects, 5 May 1955) started in 1953. To provide the study group with a complete set of files, the information cut-off date was established as of the end of 1952.
The 1953 and 1954 cases show a trend of increasing percentages in the finally identified categories.
The 1953 and 1954 cases show a general and expected trend of increasing percentages in the finally identified categories.
The revised program established by AF Reg. 200-2 improved reporting and investigating procedures.
On the basis of this, a revised program was established by AF Reg. 200-2 Subject: "Unidentified Flying Objects Reporting" (Short Title: UFOB) dated 12 August 1954.
The 4602d Air Intelligence Service Squadron would carry out all field investigations.
This new program...provided primarily that the 4602d Air Intelligence Service Squadron (Air Defense Command) would carry out all field investigations.
The number of unexplained cases has decreased rapidly towards the vanishing point.
As these impressions and interpretations have been replaced by the use of improved methods of investigation and reporting, and by scientific analysis, the number of unexplained cases has decreased rapidly towards the vanishing point.
It is highly improbable that reports of unidentified aerial objects represent observations of technological developments outside of the range of present-day scientific knowledge.
Therefore, on the basis of this evaluation of the information, it is considered to be highly improbable that reports of unidentified aerial objects examined in this study represent observations of technological developments outside of the range of present-day scientific knowledge.
Evaluation of Individual Reports Evaluation of sighting reports was recognized as a crucial step in the preparation of data for statistical treatment; inconsistent evaluations would have invalidated any conclusions to be derived from this study.
Evaluation of Individual Reports Evaluation of sighting reports was recognized as a crucial step in the preparation of data for statistical treatment; inconsistent evaluations would have invalidated any conclusions to be derived from this study.
Further, it was believed that these trends could serve as certain of the criteria of validity for any concepts (models) developed in the attempt to discover a class of "flying saucers".
Further, it was believed that these trends could serve as certain of the criteria of validity for any concepts (models) developed in the attempt to discover a class of "flying saucers".
In order to implement the transcription of data from past sighting reports, each succeeding form was put to use as soon as it was developed and approved.
In order to implement the transcription of data from past sighting reports, each succeeding form was put to use as soon as it was developed and approved.
precedented increase in observations during 1952, Accordingly, this study is based on a number of reports considered to be large enough for a pre- liminary statistical analysis, approximately 4, 000 reports.
precedented increase in observations during 1952, Accordingly, this study is based on a number of reports considered to be large enough for a pre- liminary statistical analysis, approximately 4, 000 reports.
These figures present the distributions of the important variables only by the total number of cases in each identification category, since no significant differences were found between the distributions of "Certain" and "Doubtful" identifications of objects with respect to the variables.
These figures present the distributions of the important variables only by the total number of cases in each identification category, since no significant differences were found between the distributions of "Certain" and "Doubtful" identifications of objects with respect to the variables.
It is a definite fact that upon reading a few reports, the reader becomes convinced that ''flying saucers'' are real and are some form of sinister contrivance.
It is a definite fact that upon reading a few reports, the reader becomes convinced that ''flying saucers'' are real and are some form of sinister contrivance.
14 (ANALYSIS OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS) PROJECT NO, 10073 5 MAY 1955 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (AFR 190-16) AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE CENTER WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE OHIO No copyright material is contained in this publication.
14 (ANALYSIS OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS) PROJECT NO, 10073 5 MAY 1955 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (AFR 190-16) AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE CENTER WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE OHIO No copyright material is contained in this publication.
.- eo 8 ee le el le lel le lel lt 3] Figure 16 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Speed of Object(s) With Evaluation Distribution for Each Speed Group .
.- eo 8 ee le el le lel le lel lt 3] Figure 16 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Speed of Object(s) With Evaluation Distribution for Each Speed Group .
Source Material & Evidence
Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14
CIA-UAP-015
Air Force Form 112
Air Force Letter 200-5
U.S. Air Force Technical Information Sheet
Exhibits BI, B2, and B3 in Appendix B
AF Reg. 200-2
Research Map
Lines appear only when two entities share a row-level source claim or dated timeline event. Unconnected nodes remain visible without implying a relationship.